Calmer, But Is It Over Yet?

Volatility has stabilised. Volume & activity have also dropped. Things appear to be ‘calmer’ for Lotte Titan Chemical (recently listed on Bursa Malaysia). We are seeing some sort of support zone at $4.27.

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If you choose to believe that the recent poorer than expected result was due to one-off water disruption,  then the worse may be over.

My Super High Level View On Fair Value

Strictly For Illustrative and Educational Purpose

My personal view – assuming that the incident was a really really one-off impact from the water disruption, plus assuming that this company can achieve a projected annual EPS of RM0.52 (annualised based on 2 quarters) for FY18 and plus this company can trade at a trading P/E of 12 times (vs Petronas Chemicals’s P/E of >15 times), we may be looking at a target price that is higher than its current price of RM4.37.

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One should also be concerned whether there will be further rise in oil price due to geopolitical uncertainty. This may impact on the company’s raw material costs.

DISCLAIMER: THIS IS A PERSONAL BLOG AND SHALL NOT BE RELIED IN WHATSOEVER MANNER BY ANYONE. ALL ARTICLES CONTAINED IN THIS SITE ARE STRICTLY FOR INFORMATION AND ILLUSTRATIVE PURPOSES ONLY AND DOES NOT PURPORT TO SHOW ACTUAL RESULTS. IT IS NOT, AND SHOULD NOT BE REGARDED AS INVESTMENT ADVICE OR AS A RECOMMENDATION REGARDING ANY PARTICULAR SECURITY OR COURSE OF ACTION. SOURCES USED IN THIS SITE HAVE NOT BEEN INDEPENDENTLY VERIFIED FOR ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS AND TIMELINESS. YOU SHOULD SEEK INDEPENDENT AND PROFESSIONAL INVESTMENT ADVICE IN REGARD TO YOUR INVESTMENT DECISIONS. THE AUTHOR MAY HOLD POSITIONS IN THE SECURITIES MENTIONED IN THE ARTICLES.

The Five Factors Equity Rating Scorecard

Strictly for educational and illustrative purposes

In an earlier posting, I have developed a preliminary equity rating scorecard. In this subsequent posting, I intend to refine this scorecard and continue to test & refine it over the next 12-18 months. It is very important to reiterate the point that an equity rating scorecard does not “predict” the future target price of a security. It is merely a simple high-level tool / framework / weightage system which serves to harmonise different perspectives / factors that may potentially affect the share price of a security. The end final score / rating does not mean anything (seriously). I personally look at the final score / rating as higher probability of the security hitting my target price or stop loss.

Continue reading “The Five Factors Equity Rating Scorecard”

A Not So Convicted Trade Idea

Have you ever come across a trading idea that you are not 100% convicted about it? I do feel it this time. Nevertheless, I choose to share this simple trade idea in order to give a more balanced and realistic view of the world of trading / investment. It is a world filled with contradiction, unpredictability and randomness.

Continue reading “A Not So Convicted Trade Idea”

Digging Deeper

In one of the earlier posts (see this ), Malaysian-listed printing specialist, Tien Wah Press Holdings Berhad was one of the illustrative “buy signal” results extracted based on rules-based algorithmic screening process. Let’s dig deeper into this security. Continue reading “Digging Deeper”

Things don’t look too good

Malaysia’s FBMKLCI has closed below its critical support level of 1,760. Most technical indicators seem to point toward a cautious outlook for the index in the next few months:

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As per my earlier posting, it is important to observe whether the index will breach the next support level of 1,728 in the immediate term.

DISCLAIMER: THIS IS A PERSONAL BLOG AND SHALL NOT BE RELIED IN WHATSOEVER MANNER BY ANYONE. ALL ARTICLES CONTAINED IN THIS SITE ARE STRICTLY FOR INFORMATION AND ILLUSTRATIVE PURPOSES ONLY AND DOES NOT PURPORT TO SHOW ACTUAL RESULTS. IT IS NOT, AND SHOULD NOT BE REGARDED AS INVESTMENT ADVICE OR AS A RECOMMENDATION REGARDING ANY PARTICULAR SECURITY OR COURSE OF ACTION. SOURCES USED IN THIS SITE HAVE NOT BEEN INDEPENDENTLY VERIFIED FOR ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS AND TIMELINESS. YOU SHOULD SEEK INDEPENDENT AND PROFESSIONAL INVESTMENT ADVICE IN REGARD TO YOUR INVESTMENT DECISIONS. THE AUTHOR MAY HOLD POSITIONS IN THE SECURITIES MENTIONED IN THE ARTICLES

Technical Screening (4 Jul 2017)

Based on the recently developed multi-indicators trading systems , the key indicators & buy signals are summarised as follows:

  • Price crossover above lower Keltner Channel (20,2.25) 
  • RSI(14) crosses above 30.0 
  • RSI(14) was below 30 for the last 5 days 

Based on the above stated technical rules, the following is the results of the stocks screening (as of 4 Jul 2017):

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Continue reading “Technical Screening (4 Jul 2017)”

Technical Screening

In my earlier posting (read this), I had selected 5 test stocks to test a multi-indicators trading system. The outcome of the test is cautiously optimistic, as further fine-tuning is required. Based on this simple trading system, the key indicators & buy signals are summarised as follows:

  • Price crossover above lower Keltner Channel (20,2.25) 
  • RSI(14) crosses above 30.0 
  • *new addition* RSI(14) was below 30 for the last 5 days 

I intend to automate this technical strategy into Shareinvestor Station for the purpose of stocks screening based on the above stated rules.

Continue reading “Technical Screening”