Waiting For Brent To Tank

Latest news: Oil is trading in bear market territory, with prices falling to their lowest level this year as rising supplies threaten to derail an effort by some of the world’s biggest producers to bring an end to a three-year glut. Renewed concerns about growing production from within the Opec cartel and a reinvigorated US shale industry took global crude benchmarks on Tuesday to the lowest level since mid-November with Brent crude sinking to $46 a barrel. Prices at one point during the session were down more than 20 per cent from levels at the start of 2017. A decline of more than 20 per cent from the most recent high is typically considered a bear market. Crude has now erased all its gains since late last year, when Opec and other producer countries, including Russia, agreed to cut output by 1.8m barrels a day for the first six months of 2017. A decision in May to extend the original six-month deal for a further nine months has not helped lift sentiment as a growing chorus of traders and analysts question the effectiveness of the supply curbs.

Price of Brent crude on Tuesday

Brent crude, the international benchmark, fell 89 cents, or almost 2 per cent, to settle at $46.02 a barrel, the weakest level since November 15. West Texas Intermediate, the US marker, dropped by 97 cents to a nine-month low of $43.23 a barrel, down by more than 20 per cent from a February peak.

Brent Graph.png

Two questions – (1) where is the bottom for brent? (2) what would you do when Brent tanks to the bottom? Continue reading “Waiting For Brent To Tank”

FBMKLCI vs Brent Crude (Updated)

News Update: 

Oil prices fell to almost four-month lows on Wednesday after data showed U.S. crude inventories rising faster than expected, piling pressure on OPEC to extend output cuts beyond June.

The American Petroleum Institute said late Tuesday that U.S. inventories climbed by 4.5 million barrels to 533.6 million last week, outpacing analyst forecasts of 2.8 million.

Investors now want to see whether Wednesday’s figures from the U.S. Energy Information Administration confirm the rise. EIA will release its report at 10:30 a.m. EDT (9:30 a.m. ET).

“With U.S. crude stocks continuing to mount into record territory both in total and at Cushing following almost two months of OPEC production restraint, we feel that the odds of a gradual unraveling in the OPEC agreement have been increased significantly,” Jim Ritterbusch, president of Chicago-based energy advisory firm Ritterbusch & Associates, said in a note.

Global benchmark Brent futures for May delivery were down 59 cents, or 1.1 per cent, at $50.37 a barrel by 9:48 a.m. ET. Earlier the contract fell as low as $50.05, its lowest since Nov. 30 when OPEC countries agreed to cut output.

On its first day as the front-month, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures for May were down 53 cents, or 1.1 per cent, at $47.71 per barrel.

“A look below $50 (for Brent) is quite possible today if (EIA) data show a similar pattern, but it’s impossible to say how far below $50,” Commerzbank analyst Carsten Fritsch said.

A deal between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and some non-OPEC producers to reduce output by 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) in the first half of 2017 has had little impact on bulging global stockpiles of oil.

OPEC, which sources say is increasingly leaning toward extending cuts, has broadly delivered on pledged reductions so far, but non-OPEC states have yet to cut fully in line with commitments.

“OPEC has used up most of its arsenal of verbal weapons to support the market. One hundred per cent compliance by all is the only tool they have left and on that account they are struggling,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank.

U.S. shale oil producers have been adding rigs, pushing up the country’s weekly oil production to about 9.1 million bpd for the week ended March 10, up from an average of 8.9 million bpd for calendar 2016, according to U.S. energy data.

“OPEC’s market intervention has not yet resulted in significant visible inventory drawdowns, and the financial markets have lost patience,” U.S. bank Jefferies said in a note.

But the bank said the market was undersupplied and, if OPEC extended cuts into the second half, inventories would draw down and prices recover above $60 in the fourth quarter.

However, it said U.S. crude production was expected to grow by 360,000 bpd in 2017 and 1 million bpd in 2018, and a price recovery could spur more U.S. shale activity.

Source – read more

Clearly, we are not seeing an optimistic view for the brent crude oil. Further, downside risk for brent still prevails. How does this impact on Malaysia’s FBMKLCI stock index?

Generally, there is a positive correlation between FBMKLCI and Brent. Nevertheless, lately, we are seeing a “divergence” whereby FBMKLCI has been rising whilst brent has been declining.

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Given the bearish prevailing sentiment for brent, is Malaysia’s FBMKLCI’s overstretched?

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The following table shows the updated regression analysis between FBMKLCI and brent (since June 2014), whereby there is significant statistical relationship between FBMKLCI / brent:

Relationship_March 2017.png

Currently, the actual FBMKLCI exceeds its forecast value of 1,697 points but nevertheless it is within the 95%-confidence interval of between 1,601 – 1,792.

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Based on the regression relationships, the following table shows the possible forecast range of FBMKLCI based on the movements in brent crude (USD) (USD25 – USD62.50):

Forecast Range.png

DISCLAIMER: THIS IS A PERSONAL BLOG AND SHALL NOT BE RELIED IN WHATSOEVER MANNER BY ANYONE. ALL ARTICLES CONTAINED IN THIS SITE ARE FOR INFORMATION AND ILLUSTRATIVE PURPOSES ONLY AND DOES NOT PURPORT TO SHOW ACTUAL RESULTS. IT IS NOT, AND SHOULD NOT BE REGARDED AS INVESTMENT ADVICE OR AS A RECOMMENDATION REGARDING ANY PARTICULAR SECURITY OR COURSE OF ACTION. SOURCES USED IN THIS SITE HAVE NOT BEEN INDEPENDENTLY VERIFIED FOR ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS AND TIMELINESS. YOU SHOULD SEEK INDEPENDENT AND PROFESSIONAL INVESTMENT ADVICE IN REGARD TO YOUR INVESTMENT DECISIONS. THE AUTHOR MAY HOLD POSITIONS IN THE SECURITIES MENTIONED IN THE ARTICLES.

FBMKLCI vs Brent

Higher level of correlation between FBMKLCI and Brent Crude Oil. FBMKLCI appears to be rising in tandem with a rising Brent.


Question : Would there be further rise in FBMKLCI if Brent continues to rise given the heightened geopolitical risks?

It’s ambitious to think that oil prices could reach $65: IEA http://www.cnbc.com/id/104259621


DISCLAIMER: THIS IS A PERSONAL BLOG AND SHALL NOT BE RELIED IN WHATSOEVER MANNER BY ANYONE. ALL ARTICLES CONTAINED IN THIS SITE ARE FOR INFORMATION AND ILLUSTRATIVE PURPOSES ONLY AND DOES NOT PURPORT TO SHOW ACTUAL RESULTS. IT IS NOT, AND SHOULD NOT BE REGARDED AS INVESTMENT ADVICE OR AS A RECOMMENDATION REGARDING ANY PARTICULAR SECURITY OR COURSE OF ACTION. SOURCES USED IN THIS SITE HAVE NOT BEEN
INDEPENDENTLY VERIFIED FOR ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS AND TIMELINESS. YOU SHOULD SEEK INDEPENDENT AND PROFESSIONAL INVESTMENT ADVICE IN REGARD TO YOUR INVESTMENT DECISIONS. THE AUTHOR MAY HOLD POSITIONS IN THE SECURITIES MENTIONED IN THE ARTICLES.

Monthly Seasonality & Brent

Brent crude oil appears to be relatively weak in the month of May, October, November and December

From the mid-1980s to September 2003, the inflation adjusted price of a barrel of crude oil on NYMEX was generally under $25/barrel. Then, during 2004, the price rose above $40, and then $50. A series of events led the price to exceed $60 by August 11, 2005, leading to a record-speed hike that reached $75 by the middle of 2006. Prices then dropped back to $60/barrel by the early part of 2007 before rising steeply again to $92/barrel by October 2007, and $99.29/barrel for December futures in New York on November 21, 2007.Throughout the first half of 2008, oil regularly reached record high prices. Prices on June 27, 2008, touched $141.71/barrel, for August delivery in the New York Mercantile Exchange, amid Libya‘s threat to cut output, and OPEC‘s president predicted prices may reach $170 by the Northern summer.The highest recorded price per barrel maximum of $147.02 was reached on July 11, 2008. After falling below $100 in the late summer of 2008, prices rose again in late September. On September 22, oil rose over $25 to $130 before settling again to $120.92, marking a record one-day gain of $16.37. Electronic crude oil trading was temporarily halted by NYMEX when the daily price rise limit of $10 was reached, but the limit was reset seconds later and trading resumed. By October 16, prices had fallen again to below $70, and on November 6 oil closed below $60.[10] Then in 2009, prices went slightly higher, although not to the extent of the 2005-2007 crisis, exceeding $100 in 2011 and most of 2012. Since late 2013 the oil price has fallen below the $100 mark, plummeting below the $50 mark one year later.

The 2003 invasion of Iraq marked a significant event for oil markets because Iraq contains a large amount of global oil reserves. The conflict coincided with an increase in global demand for petroleum, but it also reduced Iraq’s current oil production and has been blamed for increasing oil prices. However, oil company CEO Matthew Simmons emphasizes the peaking and decline of oil-exporting in Mexico, Indonesia and the United Kingdom is the reason for the price gouging. According to Simmons, isolated events, such as the Iraq war, affect short-term prices but do not determine a long-term trend. Simmons cites the use of enhanced oil recovery techniques in large fields such as Mexico’s Cantarell, which maintained production for a few years until it eventually declined. Pumping oil out of Iraq may reduce petroleum prices in the short term, but will be unable to perpetually lower the price. From Simmons’ point of view, the invasion of Iraq is associated with the start of long-term increase in oil prices, but it may mitigate the decline in oil production by retaining a partial amount of Iraq’s oil reserves. As a direct consequence, the oil production capacity was diminished to 2 million barrels (320,000 m3) per day. See Link

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Monthly end price of brent crude (since 1988) is shown in the following table (except for Oct 2016 – the price is as of 17 Oct 16):

Monthly Crude_Table.png

Month-on-month percentage change in brent crude oil is shown below:

Monthly Crude_Table_Analysis.png

From the above table, the analysis shows the following key findings:

  • The month of May, October, November and December show (i) either or both average and median m-o-m change to be negative as well as probability of positive movement of less than or equal to 50 percent
  • February, March and April seem to suggest relatively stronger monthly positive movements, with average m-o-m movement as high as positive 3.8 percent and a probability of positive movement in excess of 60 percent

DISCLAIMER: THIS IS A PERSONAL BLOG AND SHALL NOT BE RELIED IN WHATSOEVER MANNER BY ANYONE. ALL ARTICLES CONTAINED IN THIS SITE ARE FOR INFORMATION AND ILLUSTRATIVE PURPOSES ONLY AND DOES NOT PURPORT TO SHOW ACTUAL RESULTS. IT IS NOT, AND SHOULD NOT BE REGARDED AS INVESTMENT ADVICE OR AS A RECOMMENDATION REGARDING ANY PARTICULAR SECURITY OR COURSE OF ACTION. SOURCES USED IN THIS SITE HAVE NOT BEEN INDEPENDENTLY VERIFIED FOR ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS AND TIMELINESS. YOU SHOULD SEEK INDEPENDENT AND PROFESSIONAL INVESTMENT ADVICE IN REGARD TO YOUR INVESTMENT DECISIONS. THE AUTHOR MAY HOLD POSITIONS IN THE SECURITIES OR RELATED INSTRUMENTS MENTIONED ABOVE.

Talk Is Really Cheap

Lacking of implementation details

OPEC’s 14 oil producing nations agreed  to modestly cut their collective oil output later this year in an effort to bolster sagging prices, according to a cartel official. The decision sent global oil prices soaring by more than 5 percent. See Link

Since then, we have seen concerns / contradicting developments relating to the planned deal:

Igor Sechin, Russia’s most influential oil executive and the head of state-controlled energy giant Rosneft, said his company will not cap oil production as part of a possible agreement with OPEC. See Link

Libya, Iran and Nigeria have said they aim to pump additional volumes that could total 700,000 barrels of oil a day over August levels. See Link

Details over who will bear the brunt of the cuts are due to be set by end-November but there is already growing wariness among market-watchers about how the deal can be implemented. See Link

Low probability of a deal cutSee Link

Technically, strong resistance is expected for Brent Crude to cross above the $53.0 mark

Brent Oct 2016.png

In spite of a rebound in the brent crude oil price, we continue to see on-going trimming of selected equity holdings in oil and gas counters by Malaysia’s pension fund, EPF in the month of October 2016:

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How far can Brent go up? It will ultimately depend on the viability of shale producers (average cost at USD62):

Until there are further concrete plans relating to the production cut, oversupply of crude will continue to persist.

DISCLAIMER: THIS IS A PERSONAL BLOG AND SHALL NOT BE RELIED IN WHATSOEVER MANNER BY ANYONE. ALL ARTICLES CONTAINED IN THIS SITE ARE FOR INFORMATION AND ILLUSTRATIVE PURPOSES ONLY AND DOES NOT PURPORT TO SHOW ACTUAL RESULTS. IT IS NOT, AND SHOULD NOT BE REGARDED AS INVESTMENT ADVICE OR AS A RECOMMENDATION REGARDING ANY PARTICULAR SECURITY OR COURSE OF ACTION. SOURCES USED IN THIS SITE HAVE NOT BEEN INDEPENDENTLY VERIFIED FOR ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS AND TIMELINESS. YOU SHOULD SEEK INDEPENDENT AND PROFESSIONAL INVESTMENT ADVICE IN REGARD TO YOUR INVESTMENT DECISIONS. THE AUTHOR MAY HOLD POSITIONS IN THE SECURITIES OR RELATED INSTRUMENTS MENTIONED ABOVE.

Light At The End Of The Tunnel?

More volatility ahead for O&G companies

Malaysia’s biggest O&G player, Sapurakencana Petroleum (“SKPetro”) recently reported its 2nd quarter result (for financial period ending 31 July 2016) on 28 September 2016. The results indicate that there will be more volatility in operating results of operating companies:

We saw a significant drop in revenue. Nevertheless, the operating income was boosted by  a non-recurring operating income recorded for the latest quarter:

fs_1

The non-recurring operating income was due to payment received from Petronas for the cessation of its RSC contract, as explained below:

fs_2

Prospects remain challenging. However, Management expect the Company to be able to navigate the year satisfactorily.fs_3

Technically speaking, SKPetro appears to be on a bearish mode:

  • The stock does not appear to be able to break its downtrend mode

skpetro28092016_1skpetro28092016_2

  • Other technical indicators e.g RSI and MACD seem to support an overall bearish tone

skpetro28092016_3

  • To be able to successfully break the downtrend, the share price and / or its shorter tenure MAs should breach the 200D-MA line, with a strong volume support.

skpetro28092016_4

Nevertheless, we may see some support at RM1.28 for potential rebound.

Recent weakness may have been attributable to the on-going disposals by major institutional investor such as EPF:

SKPetro_Disposals.png

In terms of analysts’ target price, it is quite wide (ranging from RM1.16 to RM1.71, with Hold / Sell recommendations):

PriceTarget_SKPetro.png

What is very clear at this juncture is that we are yet to see the light at the end of tunnel for O&G companies. We should brace for more volatility ahead.

DISCLAIMER: THIS IS A PERSONAL BLOG AND SHALL NOT BE RELIED IN WHATSOEVER MANNER BY ANYONE. ALL ARTICLES CONTAINED IN THIS SITE ARE FOR INFORMATION AND ILLUSTRATIVE PURPOSES ONLY AND DOES NOT PURPORT TO SHOW ACTUAL RESULTS. IT IS NOT, AND SHOULD NOT BE REGARDED AS INVESTMENT ADVICE OR AS A RECOMMENDATION REGARDING ANY PARTICULAR SECURITY OR COURSE OF ACTION. SOURCES USED IN THIS SITE HAVE NOT BEEN INDEPENDENTLY VERIFIED FOR ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS AND TIMELINESS. YOU SHOULD SEEK INDEPENDENT AND PROFESSIONAL INVESTMENT ADVICE IN REGARD TO YOUR INVESTMENT DECISIONS. THE AUTHOR MAY HOLD POSITIONS IN THE SECURITIES OR RELATED INSTRUMENTS MENTIONED ABOVE.