Happy Diwali

A day to celebrate. A day to rest. A day to ponder what is really going on with Malaysia’s FBMKLCI which has continued to underperform regional indices:

Regional Indices

There has been rotational play of which funds are flowing (?) from large cap (KLCI-constituents) to mid / small firms as mid-small cap indices are outperforming the large-cap KLCI on a year-to-date basis:

Mid-small.png

Technically, key support of 1,752 has been breached. Next expected support is anticipated at 200D moving average (around 1,740) and thereafter, at 1,727. As per Force Index indicator, it is observed there has been some level of bearish divergence earlier  prior to October.

0200I.MY.png

There are two ‘interesting companies’ may be worthy to watch:

Daiman – it may have appeared to have broken its trading range. Next resistance point is expected at around $2.53 as well as its 200D moving average line.

Daiman 18102017.png

BToto – After months of downtrend, are we seeing the bottom for this stock? Will the stock able to sustain above the key resistance of $2.48?

BToto18102017

Last but not least, what’s in store for Budget 2018 (to be tabled on 27 October 2017)?

DISCLAIMER: THIS IS A PERSONAL BLOG AND SHALL NOT BE RELIED IN WHATSOEVER MANNER BY ANYONE. ALL ARTICLES CONTAINED IN THIS SITE ARE STRICTLY FOR INFORMATION AND ILLUSTRATIVE PURPOSES ONLY AND DOES NOT PURPORT TO SHOW ACTUAL RESULTS. IT IS NOT, AND SHOULD NOT BE REGARDED AS INVESTMENT ADVICE OR AS A RECOMMENDATION REGARDING ANY PARTICULAR SECURITY OR COURSE OF ACTION. SOURCES USED IN THIS SITE HAVE NOT BEEN INDEPENDENTLY VERIFIED FOR ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS AND TIMELINESS. YOU SHOULD SEEK INDEPENDENT AND PROFESSIONAL INVESTMENT ADVICE IN REGARD TO YOUR INVESTMENT DECISIONS. THE AUTHOR MAY HOLD POSITIONS IN THE SECURITIES MENTIONED IN THE ARTICLES.

Week In Review, Nothing New

For this week, there is nothing new about Malaysia’s FBMKLCI index. Still consolidating, support  isstill holding up at around 1,752.

KLCI

What is more puzzling is that FBMKLCI has lagged behind our regional neighbours in terms of YTD performance:

KLCI_2.jpeg

One may wonder what may have caused the relative divergence in performance.

The recent drop in the Malaysian stock market may be attributable to recent sell-out by foreign investors (see: https://asia.nikkei.com/Markets/Nikkei-Markets/ASIA-MARKETS-Singapore-Stocks-Rise-To-Highest-In-2-Months-Malaysian-Equities-Fall).

Foreigners.png

 

DISCLAIMER: THIS IS A PERSONAL BLOG AND SHALL NOT BE RELIED IN WHATSOEVER MANNER BY ANYONE. ALL ARTICLES CONTAINED IN THIS SITE ARE STRICTLY FOR INFORMATION AND ILLUSTRATIVE PURPOSES ONLY AND DOES NOT PURPORT TO SHOW ACTUAL RESULTS. IT IS NOT, AND SHOULD NOT BE REGARDED AS INVESTMENT ADVICE OR AS A RECOMMENDATION REGARDING ANY PARTICULAR SECURITY OR COURSE OF ACTION. SOURCES USED IN THIS SITE HAVE NOT BEEN INDEPENDENTLY VERIFIED FOR ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS AND TIMELINESS. YOU SHOULD SEEK INDEPENDENT AND PROFESSIONAL INVESTMENT ADVICE IN REGARD TO YOUR INVESTMENT DECISIONS. THE AUTHOR MAY HOLD POSITIONS IN THE SECURITIES MENTIONED IN THE ARTICLES.

Support Is Still Holding Up?

For week ending 8 October 2017, it appears that FBMKLCI manages to hold up at its support level of 1,752 and more importantly, it is still above its 200D MA.

A streak of losses in preceding week / earlier part of the week has resulted in bargain hunting in later part of this week. This had contributed towards positive rebound, as FBMKLCI closed higher than its 8D EMA with a relatively higher trading volume. Stochastic clearly shows an oversold position.

KLCI 07102017

What could possibly happen next?

Scenario 1: Uptrend

Ideally, the following has to happen:

  • The index trades above the other MAs and EMAs;
  • The index is able to break resistance point at 1,793; and
  • All MAs and EMAs are sloping upward

Scenario 2: Downtrend

  • The index trades below support level of 1,752;
  • 50D MA breaks below 200D MA; and
  • All MAs and EMAs are sloping downward.

Scenario 3: Range Bound

  • The index continues to trade in range of between 1,752 and 1,793;
  • All MAs and EMAs will flatten; and
  • Trading volume will be low.

 

DISCLAIMER: THIS IS A PERSONAL BLOG AND SHALL NOT BE RELIED IN WHATSOEVER MANNER BY ANYONE. ALL ARTICLES CONTAINED IN THIS SITE ARE STRICTLY FOR INFORMATION AND ILLUSTRATIVE PURPOSES ONLY AND DOES NOT PURPORT TO SHOW ACTUAL RESULTS. IT IS NOT, AND SHOULD NOT BE REGARDED AS INVESTMENT ADVICE OR AS A RECOMMENDATION REGARDING ANY PARTICULAR SECURITY OR COURSE OF ACTION. SOURCES USED IN THIS SITE HAVE NOT BEEN INDEPENDENTLY VERIFIED FOR ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS AND TIMELINESS. YOU SHOULD SEEK INDEPENDENT AND PROFESSIONAL INVESTMENT ADVICE IN REGARD TO YOUR INVESTMENT DECISIONS. THE AUTHOR MAY HOLD POSITIONS IN THE SECURITIES MENTIONED IN THE ARTICLES.

Hello October

G’day everyone. This shall be my very first posting for the month of October. Many have considered October as ‘month that is filled with bad omens’ since this very month has witnessed numerous historical crashes in stock markets.

Nevertheless, I’m keen to look at one particular long-established company, Hap Seng Plantations Holdings (the Company  is engaged in cultivation of oil palm and processing of fresh fruit bunches carried out in Malaysia).

It appears to be trading in range bound, with its recent marginal uptrend in its 20D EMA. Whether the stock’s momentum will continue, it is dependent on whether it can break the next key resistance point at RM2.73

Hapl_TA.png

There have been pockets of major activities in its trading volume, which may be potentially attributable to recent accumulation in the shares of the Company by Lembaga Tabung Haji:

HAPL_Insiders.png

As shown below, Hap Seng Plantations tends to be ‘less reactive’ to the movements of the CPO. As such, we would expect a generally muted correlation between the Company and CPO.

Hapl vs CPO (multiple graph.png

Strictly For Educational / Illustrative Purposes Only

Based on a simple regression analysis (with R-square at 0.38) between the share price of Hap Seng Plantations and CPO, the current share price (RM2.67) of Hap Seng Plantations appears to be fairly valued if compared to its forecasted value of RM2.61 (with a 95%-confidence band of RM2.14 – RM3.07)

HapL_Oct17.png

We also run a regression analysis between P/E ratio of Hap Seng Plantations and CPO. Although the statistical relationship appears weak, the current P/E of Hap Seng Plantations of 14.17x is not unreasonable if compared to the forecasted P/E of 15.68x (with a 95%-confidence band of 8.3x-23.1x).

HAPL_PER vs forecast.png

As shown in the frequency distribution of the Company’s P/E, the current P/E ratio of the Company appears to be not unreasonable as it is below the mean PE (since 31 Dec 2008).

HAPL_normalitytestPER.png

The above analysis is a simple high-level desktop analysis. One should conduct further research and background study of the Company.

DISCLAIMER: THIS IS A PERSONAL BLOG AND SHALL NOT BE RELIED IN WHATSOEVER MANNER BY ANYONE. ALL ARTICLES CONTAINED IN THIS SITE ARE STRICTLY FOR INFORMATION AND ILLUSTRATIVE PURPOSES ONLY AND DOES NOT PURPORT TO SHOW ACTUAL RESULTS. IT IS NOT, AND SHOULD NOT BE REGARDED AS INVESTMENT ADVICE OR AS A RECOMMENDATION REGARDING ANY PARTICULAR SECURITY OR COURSE OF ACTION. SOURCES USED IN THIS SITE HAVE NOT BEEN INDEPENDENTLY VERIFIED FOR ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS AND TIMELINESS. YOU SHOULD SEEK INDEPENDENT AND PROFESSIONAL INVESTMENT ADVICE IN REGARD TO YOUR INVESTMENT DECISIONS. THE AUTHOR MAY HOLD POSITIONS IN THE SECURITIES MENTIONED IN THE ARTICLES.

The American Effect

…Yale’s Robert Shiller (founder of the Case-Shiller Index on U.S. housing prices), who said yesterday that “the U.S. stock market looks a lot like at did at the peak before all 13 previous price collapses,” investors may look at this as another brick in a new wall of worry. (Shiller defines a bear market as a 20% drop in prices, but does not issue a firm timeline for this drop.) ...” read more

How would a bear market in the US affect the FBMKLCI?

Since 2010 (post-GFC), Malaysia’s FBMKLCI has trended in tandem with the positive movements in the SP500 index. Nevertheless, the SP500 index has outpaced the FBMKLCI since 2015, as shown in the comparison charts of 60-day moving median of FBMKLCI and SP500:

KLCI vs SP (median).png

A simple regression analysis is computed between the moving medians of FBMKLCI and SP500, of which an r-squared of 0.54 has been derived:

Regression Results.png

Based on the statistical relationship against the SP500, the FBMKLCI is currently at level below that of the forecast value (based on median) of 1,851 but it is within the 95% upper & lower confidence bands (since Apr 2010 till date):

Forecast Median KLCI_Sep 17.png

The following simple high-level analysis shows the potential & possible impact on FBMKLCI if there is a 5% – 30% drop in the SP500. In this case, the lower band may be potential support zones (assuming the regression relationship holds).

Scenario.png

 

On why I use moving medians for the analysis, it is just one of the possible avenues to part filter the market noises.

DISCLAIMER: THIS IS A PERSONAL BLOG AND SHALL NOT BE RELIED IN WHATSOEVER MANNER BY ANYONE. ALL ARTICLES CONTAINED IN THIS SITE ARE STRICTLY FOR INFORMATION AND ILLUSTRATIVE PURPOSES ONLY AND DOES NOT PURPORT TO SHOW ACTUAL RESULTS. IT IS NOT, AND SHOULD NOT BE REGARDED AS INVESTMENT ADVICE OR AS A RECOMMENDATION REGARDING ANY PARTICULAR SECURITY OR COURSE OF ACTION. SOURCES USED IN THIS SITE HAVE NOT BEEN INDEPENDENTLY VERIFIED FOR ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS AND TIMELINESS. YOU SHOULD SEEK INDEPENDENT AND PROFESSIONAL INVESTMENT ADVICE IN REGARD TO YOUR INVESTMENT DECISIONS. THE AUTHOR MAY HOLD POSITIONS IN THE SECURITIES MENTIONED IN THE ARTICLES.

It Is All About The Edge

Little Rocketman has certainly created much anxiety in the financial markets. Further, the planned reversal of QE is envisaged to have greater impacts on emerging markets. Foreign funds have continued (?) to sell their positions on the Malaysia’s stock exchange. The FBMKLCI has suffered a 6-day consecutive decline. Are we in an oversold position?

IntroKLCI.png

If Rocketman decides to launch a missile, there could be more downside risks. Assuming that I would like to take a punt by taking a long position (i.e the KLCI is currently oversold), I may want to consider the following structured warrant:

Warrant Terms.png

Finding My Edge For A Long Position

To re-iterate again and again, I do not have the crystal ball to foresee what is going to happen in the next few days. More importantly, one should understand the trading edge before executing a position. So, what is the edge for this bet?

1.  Support, Support, Support

If you see the following hourly chart, there could be some possible zonal support around 1,761 ( a clear rebound). The next point of defense will be at 1,756.

FBMKLCI.png

2.  Implied Volatility < Actual Volatility

At current warrant price of RM0.05, the implied volatility of the underlying could be in the low range of 3% – 4%. Relatively lower than the actual volatility.

Implied Vol.png

Actual volatility has spiked up to 9.40% , as of today:

KLCI_VOLS.png

3. Seasonality may matter

With FBMKLCI-C3F, I have more than 180 days prior to the expiry of the warrant in March 2018. Based on the following seasonality table:

  • Possible profit taking opportunity in the months of October, December and March which appear to be historically positive (m-o-m basis)
  • Be cautious (with a possibility of taking stop-loss) in historically weak months of November and January

October Seasonality.png

DISCLAIMER: THIS IS A PERSONAL BLOG AND SHALL NOT BE RELIED IN WHATSOEVER MANNER BY ANYONE. ALL ARTICLES CONTAINED IN THIS SITE ARE STRICTLY FOR INFORMATION AND ILLUSTRATIVE PURPOSES ONLY AND DOES NOT PURPORT TO SHOW ACTUAL RESULTS. IT IS NOT, AND SHOULD NOT BE REGARDED AS INVESTMENT ADVICE OR AS A RECOMMENDATION REGARDING ANY PARTICULAR SECURITY OR COURSE OF ACTION. SOURCES USED IN THIS SITE HAVE NOT BEEN INDEPENDENTLY VERIFIED FOR ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS AND TIMELINESS. YOU SHOULD SEEK INDEPENDENT AND PROFESSIONAL INVESTMENT ADVICE IN REGARD TO YOUR INVESTMENT DECISIONS. THE AUTHOR MAY HOLD POSITIONS IN THE SECURITIES MENTIONED IN THE ARTICLES.

Statistics & CPO

I am NOT a Crude Palm Oil (CPO) expert. I do not profess to be one too. I am more interested in the statistical element of CPO prices. 

Commodities like CPO are dependent on cycles (seasonal factors). In fact, there are weather considerations that will impact on CPO prices. The following graph shows the historical CPO price since November 2007, with a historical median CPO price of RM2,585.

CPO_1.png

As shown below, it is observed that there are some “seasonal weakness” in the CPO prices (mainly in Q2-Q3), middle of the year):Presentation1.png

The following table shows that on average (since Nov 2007), there is a probability that CPO price will tend to fall below the median price of RM2,585 in the months of Aug, Sep, Oct and Nov:

CPO_2

The following graph shows the estimated CPO price (by month) by adding the average differential (between CPO Price and CPO median) with historical median CPO price of RM2,585. Strictly For Educational and Illustrative Purposes Only

CPO_3

One may argue that trading in commodity or commodity-related companies should be based on seasonal factors and cycles. If that argument holds and assuming that the above high-level statistical analysis works out as planned, I may personally consider the months of October-November as a possible (not a certainty) entry point for trading CPO or palm oil-related stocks. It is important to note that there are NUMEROUS factors that impact on CPO prices. Statistics may not work at times.

DISCLAIMER: THIS IS A PERSONAL BLOG AND SHALL NOT BE RELIED IN WHATSOEVER MANNER BY ANYONE. ALL ARTICLES CONTAINED IN THIS SITE ARE STRICTLY FOR INFORMATION AND ILLUSTRATIVE PURPOSES ONLY AND DOES NOT PURPORT TO SHOW ACTUAL RESULTS. IT IS NOT, AND SHOULD NOT BE REGARDED AS INVESTMENT ADVICE OR AS A RECOMMENDATION REGARDING ANY PARTICULAR SECURITY OR COURSE OF ACTION. SOURCES USED IN THIS SITE HAVE NOT BEEN INDEPENDENTLY VERIFIED FOR ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS AND TIMELINESS. YOU SHOULD SEEK INDEPENDENT AND PROFESSIONAL INVESTMENT ADVICE IN REGARD TO YOUR INVESTMENT DECISIONS. THE AUTHOR MAY HOLD POSITIONS IN THE SECURITIES MENTIONED IN THE ARTICLES.