Will CPO rise higher?

Crude palm oil (CPO) FOB spot price has risen from the low of MYR1,805 (Aug 15) to approximately MYR3,300 (Feb 17). Will we see continue run in this commodity?

Based on a multiple regression analysis (variables – USDMYR forex, Soy Bean Oil and Brent Crude), we derive a simple forecast range for the CPO (FOB Spot price):

cpoforecast_03-feb-2017

Based on the analysis, it appears that the current FOB spot price of MYR3,300 is 13.9% higher than predicted value of MYR2,896, with a 95%-confidence interval of between MYR2,329 and MYR3,462.

results

 

DISCLAIMER: THIS IS A PERSONAL BLOG AND SHALL NOT BE RELIED IN WHATSOEVER MANNER BY ANYONE. ALL ARTICLES CONTAINED IN THIS SITE ARE FOR INFORMATION AND ILLUSTRATIVE PURPOSES ONLY AND DOES NOT PURPORT TO SHOW ACTUAL RESULTS. IT IS NOT, AND SHOULD NOT BE REGARDED AS INVESTMENT ADVICE OR AS A RECOMMENDATION REGARDING ANY PARTICULAR SECURITY OR COURSE OF ACTION. SOURCES USED IN THIS SITE HAVE NOT BEEN INDEPENDENTLY VERIFIED FOR ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS AND TIMELINESS. YOU SHOULD SEEK INDEPENDENT AND PROFESSIONAL INVESTMENT ADVICE IN REGARD TO YOUR INVESTMENT DECISIONS. THE AUTHOR MAY HOLD POSITIONS IN THE SECURITIES MENTIONED IN THE ARTICLES.

Author: Ken Utau

Data Scientist, Markets Analyst and Food Lover

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