Are We Seeing A Double Top?

Charoen Pokphand Foods Plc (CPF) was established in 1978 with operations in animal feed production, livestock breeding, further processing and trade. Currently, CPF invests overseas in nine countries, has subsidiaries in 17 countries and exports to over 40 countries. Furthermore, CPF is today the leading producer of feed and one of the largest producers of poultry in the world. Charoen Pokphand Foods is listed in the Stock Exchange of Thailand under the code: CPF.

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How Far Can FBM KLCI Rise?

International Monetary Fund (‘IMF’) in its recent World Economic Outlook Update, highlighted that the risks to the global growth outlook to be skewed to the downside, especially over the medium term. On the domestic front, Malaysian Institute of Economic Research (‘MIER’) on 19 January 2017 had downgraded real GDP growth for 2017 to 4.5%, the lower bound of the range of its earlier forecast of 4.5% – 5.5%, as some downside risks are beginning to emerge. Given this scenario, the Board of Directors recognise that a potential widening of global imbalances coupled with volatility in exchange rates will be challenging risks to the Group. Thus, the Board continues to remain cautious on the Group’s prospect for Financial Year 2017.
Source: Quarterly Result Announcement By Malaysia’s utility player, Tenaga Nasional Berhad (announced on 24 Jan 2017)

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Business Cycles & Investing: Malaysia (Jan 2017)

The Sun Daily reported back in October 2016:

Businesses and consumers are less optimistic about the Malaysian economy, a survey by the Malaysian Institute of Economic Research (MIER) shows.

MIER’s third-quarter (Q3) Business Conditions Index (BCI) dived 22.5 points to 83.9 points from 106.4 points in Q2 on the back of a slowdown in sales and production, declining local and export orders and rising stock levels.

The Consumer Sentiments Index (CSI), meanwhile, was down by 5 points quarter-on-quarter to 73.6 points in Q3 due to uninspiring employment and financial outlook. This is the ninth consecutive quarter that the CSI has remained below the 100-point threshold level of confidence.

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Falling Ringgit, Rising Crude

Deutsche Bank Research has downgraded low-cost carrier AirAsia Bhd to “sell” from “hold” in view of higher jet fuel prices, weaker ringgit and impact on passenger yields due to capacity growth from competitors. DB Research has a target price of RM1.75 for AirAsia Berhad. In view of falling ringgit and rising crude, what is the forecast statistical indicative price range for AirAsia?
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