Oil & Gas Updates In Charts (Aug 2016)

Quick update of Oil & Gas Sector in Malaysia

Let’s take a quick look at the Oil & Gas sector for the month of August 2016.

Brent vs USD Index

Brent is generally negatively correlated with the movement in the USD Index. Based on a regression analysis, the forecasted value of brent is USD51.14 vs actual of USD49.20, with a 95%-confidence between USD33.47-USD68.81. The USD Index is expected to perform better, in line with potential US rate hike. Read more

BrentVsUSD.png

Regression_BrentVsUSD

Regression_BrentVsUSD (results)

Oil & Gas Companies in Malaysia : Market Capitalisation

Significant drop in market capitalisation across most O&G companies listed on Bursa Malaysia, except for Dialog and Yinson. Malaysia’s biggest O&G company by market cap, i.e SKPetro suffered a significant drop in its market cap.Summary of Mkt Cap of O&G CompaniesTimeSeriesMktCapO&G

Oil & Gas Companies vs FBMKLCI : Market Capitalisation

Market cap of O&G companies listed on Bursa has fallen relatively more than the market cap of KLCI. Based on regression analysis between the market cap of O&G companies and KLCI, the forecasted market cap for O&G companies is expected to be  RM48.9b vs actual RM34.8b, with a 95%-confidence interval between RM31.5b and RM66.4b.

Regression_O&GvsKLCIRegression_O&GvsKLCI (results)

SKPetro vs Oil & Gas Companies (excl. SKPetro) : Market Capitalisation

The regression between market cap of SKPetro and other Oil & Gas companies shows the current market cap of SKPetro is slightly below the forecasted value. No significant divergence between actual and forecast value.

Regression_SKPetrovsO&GRegression_SKPetrovsO&G (results)

Oil & Gas Companies (Market Cap) vs Brent

There appears to be a significant divergence between the forecasted and actual value of current market cap of Oil & Gas companies listed in Malaysia. The actual market cap of these companies is significantly lower than as per the regression analysis.

Regression_O&GvsBrent

Regression_O&GvsBrent (results).png

 

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Author: Ken Utau

Markets Observer + Food Lover

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