Hot Money & South East Asian Stock Markets
Briefly touched on real interest rate and hot money in an earlier post: https://kenutau.wordpress.com/2016/02/12/real-interest-rate-hot-money/
BREXIT has certainly thrown a spanner into US Fed’s gradual plans in raising the fed funds rate. In fact, there may even be a rate cut in view of the prevailing uncertainties associated with BREXIT (http://fortune.com/2016/06/27/fed-interest-rate-brexit/).
Hot money from global quantitative easing programme has since created significant upward pressure on the asset prices of emerging markets (especially with South East Asian stock markets). Assuming a surprise rate hike or hike in market volatility this year, the South East Asian stock markets will potentially see a significant downward reversal due to flow of funds back to US assets.
The magnitude of historical increase in the indices of respective stock markets will determine the extent of potential future reversal of these indices. From the above graph, it appears that the Jakarta Composite Index (“JCI”) has recorded the best relative performance since 2006 with more than 270% increase in its index, outperforming the rest of the selected South East Asian stock markets and S&P 500. Both Thailand’s SET and Malaysia’s KLCI have recorded relative performance of 110% and 78% respectively whilst S&P 500 only increased approximately 65%. Meanwhile, Singapore’s STI recorded a marginal increase of 17% since 2006.
Since 2011, the S&P500 has outperformed the selected South East Asian stock markets. Both SET and JCI have performed at 32% and 26% respectively whilst Singapore underperformed at negative 9%.
In the past two years, both Malaysia and Singapore have underperformed at more than negative 10% whilst JCI is the only selected South East Asian stock market that has a positive relative performance.
In one year timeframe, all selected South East Asian markets have corrected, i.e recording negative returns.
This is a simple analysis without a detailed account of each country’s macroeconomic fundamentals. Nevertheless, it does present an angle to identify potential reversals in selected stock markets. JCI appears to be potentially most vulnerable whilst Singapore may appear to be resilient towards future correction.
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