Alarming Household Debt

Background

Household debt is defined as the amount of money that all adults in the household owe financial institutions. It includes consumer debt and mortgage loans. A significant rise in the level of this debt coincides historically with many severe economic crises and was a cause of the U.S. and subsequent European economic crises of 2007–2012. Several economists have argued that lowering this debt is essential to economic recovery in the U.S. and selected Eurozone countries.

Household debt rose as living standards rose, and consumers demanded an array of durable goods. These included major durables like high-end electronics, vehicles, and appliances, that were purchased with credit. Easy credit encouraged a shift from saving to spending.

Households in developed countries significantly increased their household debt relative to their disposable income and GDP from 1980 to 2007 — one of the many factors behind the U.S. and European crises of 2007–2012. Research indicates that U.S. household debt increased from 43% to 62% of GDP from 1982 to 2000.[5]

U.S. households made significant progress in deleveraging (reducing debt) post-crisis, much of it due to foreclosures and financial institution debt write-downs. By some measures, consumers began to add certain types of debt again in 2012, a sign that the economy may be improving as this borrowing supports consumption.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Household_debt

Reference Materials – Household Debt

A rise in the household debt to GDP ratio predicts lower output growth and a higher unemployment rate over the medium-run.

http://faculty.chicagobooth.edu/workshops/macro/pdf/MianSufiVerner_worlddebt.pdf

The Great Recession was particularly severe in economies that experienced a larger run-up in household debt prior to the crisis. A further negative effect on economic activity of high household debt in the presence of a shock, postulated by numerous models, comes from the forced sale of durable goods. For example, a rise in unemployment reduces households’ ability to service their debt, implying arise in household defaults, foreclosures, and creditors selling foreclosed properties at distressed, or fire-sale, prices. Estimates suggest that a single foreclosure lowers the price of a neighboring property by about 1 percent, but that the effects can be much larger when there is a wave of foreclosures, with estimates of price declines reaching almost 30 percent (Campbell, Giglio, and Pathak, 2011). The associated negative price effects in turn reduce economic activity through a number of self-reinforcing contractionary spirals. These include negative wealth effects, a reduction in collateral value, a negative impact on bank balance sheets, and a credit crunch. As Shleifer and Vishny (2010) explain, fire sales undermine the ability of financial institutions and firms to lend and borrow by reducing their net worth, and this reduction in credit supply can reduce productivity enhancing investment. Such externalities—banksand households ignoring the social cost of defaults and fire sales—may justify policy intervention aimedat stopping household defaults, foreclosures, and fire sales. The case of the United States today illustrates the risk of house prices “undershooting” their equilibrium values during a housing bust on the back of fire sales. The IMF staff notes that “distress sales are the main driving force behind the recent declines in house prices—in fact, excluding distress sales, house prices had stopped falling” and that “there is a risk of house price undershooting”.

https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2012/01/pdf/c3.pdf

United States

US_HSD.png

US’s household debt-to-GDP hits as high as more than 95% before the global financial crisis hit in 2007-2008. Since recession, there has been significant deleveraging within the US financial sector.

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/households-debt-to-gdp

Greece

Greece experienced its highest household debt-to-GDP ratio of close to 65%. On June 30, 2015, it became the first developed country to fail to make an IMF loan repayment.

greece-households-debt-t.png

Malaysia

Malaysia’s and Thailand’s household debt to GDP ratios have almost doubled between 2008 and 2015. Thailand’s ratio stands at about 80%.

household-debt-to-income_620_403_100.jpg

Bank Negara recently announced that Malaysia’s household debt-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratio increased to 89.1% as of 2015 from 86.8%.

http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/04/02/household-debt-on-the-rise/

With recent massive retrenchment exercises in Malaysia (especially with the O&G sector), we are seeing an increasing rise in unemployment rate:

IUnemployment Rate_MY.png

Furthermore, Malaysia is experiencing a slowing GDP growth rate in tandem with domestic and global uncertainties.

MY_GDP.png

Final Words: It Is A Matter Of Time

Fitch downgraded Malaysia’s long-term local bonds’ credit rating to “A-” from “A” last week. The key factors now absent in Malaysia are strong public finance fundamentals against external finance fundamentals, and the erstwhile preferential treatment of local-currency creditors against the foreign-currency ones.

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/fitch-downgrades-petronas-long-term-credit-ratings-after-msias-downgrade

It is a matter of time when Malaysia’s high households debt to GDP will lead to significant problems in the domestic economy, including a likelihood of a recession in the medium term.

So when is the breaking point for Malaysia?

  1. When interest rate rises (unlikely the case at this juncture) : harder for Borrowers to meet debt service obligations
  2. Falling property prices : will affect collateral value pledged to property loans
  3. Falling GDP leads to increasing unemployment rate
  4. Rising NPLs, potentially resulting in the shutoff of credit environment
  5. Budget deficits and fiscal issues
  6. Global externalities

DISCLAIMER: ALL ARTICLES CONTAINED IN THIS SITE ARE FOR INFORMATION AND ILLUSTRATIVE PURPOSES ONLY AND DOES NOT PURPORT TO SHOW ACTUAL RESULTS. IT IS NOT, AND SHOULD NOT BE REGARDED AS INVESTMENT ADVICE OR AS A RECOMMENDATION REGARDING ANY PARTICULAR SECURITY OR COURSE OF ACTION. SOURCES USED IN THIS SITE HAVE NOT BEEN INDEPENDENTLY VERIFIED FOR ACCURACY. YOU SHOULD SEEK INDEPENDENT AND PROFESSIONAL INVESTMENT ADVICE IN REGARD TO YOUR INVESTMENT DECISIONS. THE AUTHOR MAY HOLD POSITIONS IN THE SECURITIES MENTIONED ABOVE. 

China’s Currency War

When China moves to lower the value of the yuan, others in the developing world follow suit. China’s currency moves also come at a critical time for the yuan: it was recently placed into the IMF’s group of elite global currencies. Chinese officials may not be starting a currency war, some experts argue. After all, they’re allowing market forces to have greater influence over the yuan now. By devaluing its currency, China gains an advantage in global trade. Its exports become cheaper, and more attractive, to foreign buyers. To stay competitive against China, its trade partners — mostly in Asia — devalue as well to maintain a cheaper currency.

http://money.cnn.com/2016/01/07/news/economy/global-currency-war-sparked-by-china/

Further devaluation may be possible as it is envisaged that China will experience slower growth in line with its historic shift of its economy to a more consumption- and service-driven.

What has happened to the Renminbi (RMB)?

We have seen significant depreciation in the RMB, since early 2014.

RMB_Trend.png

What is the outlook for RMB?

Slowing economic fundamentals, coupled with global uncertainties will create downward pressure on RMB to further devaluate.

http://www.chinabusinessnews.com/2835-heres-why-yuan-tumbled-to-its-5year-low/

What will be the impact on Ringgit Malaysia (MYR)?

Since China is a key trading partner to Malaysia, we may see a parallel devaluation in the Malaysian Ringgit in line with China’s move. In validating this point, a simple regression analysis is performed between MYR-USD (dependent) and RMB-USD (independent variable), whereby we saw MYR’s trading pattern is in tandem with the movement of RMB.

MYRCorr.png

Given the current exchange rate of RMB (6.68 against USD @ 25 July 2016), the MYR is currently trading at a fair value of RM4.0828 vs its forecasted value of RM4.0679, with a 95% confidence interval of between RM3.3817 and RM4.7541.

Forecast vs actual.png

The statistical relationship is summarised as follows:

Summary.png

Assuming RMB continues its devaluation path towards 7.10 (http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2016/07/how-low-will-the-yuan-go-and-what-harm-will-it-do/), we may see further potential devaluation in the Ringgit Malaysia to MYR4.75 against the USD:

Target forecast MYRUSD  = -6.7812 + 7.10 (1.62472) = 4.75

 

 

DISCLAIMER: ALL ARTICLES CONTAINED IN THIS SITE ARE FOR INFORMATION AND ILLUSTRATIVE PURPOSES ONLY AND DOES NOT PURPORT TO SHOW ACTUAL RESULTS. IT IS NOT, AND SHOULD NOT BE REGARDED AS INVESTMENT ADVICE OR AS A RECOMMENDATION REGARDING ANY PARTICULAR SECURITY OR COURSE OF ACTION. SOURCES USED IN THIS SITE HAVE NOT BEEN INDEPENDENTLY VERIFIED FOR ACCURACY. YOU SHOULD SEEK INDEPENDENT AND PROFESSIONAL INVESTMENT ADVICE IN REGARD TO YOUR INVESTMENT DECISIONS. THE AUTHOR MAY HOLD POSITIONS IN THE SECURITIES MENTIONED ABOVE. 

Volume Matters

“The bottom is preceded by a period in which the market declines on low volumes and rises on high volumes. The end of a bear market is characterised by a final slump of prices on low trading volumes. Confirmation that the bear trend is over will be rising volumes at the new higher levels after the first rebound in equity prices.” (Napier Russell, Anatomy of the Bear: Lessons from Wall Street’s four great bottoms)

Volume analysis is an important consideration in determining whether the index is at the beginning of a rally or the end of a bear.

Historical trading graph and volume of Malaysia’s FBMKLCI is shown below:

FBMKLCI 23072016.jpeg

The volume of rises and declines of FBMKLCI is discussed as follows:

Rises Volume

RisingVol_FBMKLCI.png

2009 – end 2013: increasing rise volumes coincides with a bull run in the FBMKLCI

2014 – 2015: lower rise volumes coincides with a downward reversal in FBMKLCI

2015-2016: increasing rise volumes potentially mean the end of the bear market? To confirm this, we need to see a much higher volume to be followed by upward price movement

Declines Volume

DeclineVol_FBMKLCI.png

It works quite opposite to the Rise Volume. Nevertheless, we are currently seeing a lower decline volumes, which may potentially mean the end of the bear market with FBMKLCI.

Final Words

Trading volume is only one part of the entire equation. More importantly, the end of bear market should always be accompanied by positive catalysts / strong macroeconomic indicators.

 

DISCLAIMER: ALL ARTICLES CONTAINED IN THIS SITE ARE FOR INFORMATION AND ILLUSTRATIVE PURPOSES ONLY AND DOES NOT PURPORT TO SHOW ACTUAL RESULTS. IT IS NOT, AND SHOULD NOT BE REGARDED AS INVESTMENT ADVICE OR AS A RECOMMENDATION REGARDING ANY PARTICULAR SECURITY OR COURSE OF ACTION. SOURCES USED IN THIS SITE HAVE NOT BEEN INDEPENDENTLY VERIFIED FOR ACCURACY. YOU SHOULD SEEK INDEPENDENT AND PROFESSIONAL INVESTMENT ADVICE IN REGARD TO YOUR INVESTMENT DECISIONS. THE AUTHOR MAY HOLD POSITIONS IN THE SECURITIES MENTIONED ABOVE.

Keep Going Up?

The Stock Exchange of Thailand (“SET”) has recorded impressive return since the start of 2016, with its trading pattern backed by an upward trend line and support as per the 200D-MA.

Thai SET Index_Jul 16.jpeg

On a fundamental front, SET may appear overvalued, with its price-to-earnings ratio (PER) exceeding 20 times (which is significantly higher than its historical average of 14.45 times since 1989).

PER_Graph.png

From another angle, the price-to-book ratio (PBR) of the SET is currently at a reasonable valuation point of 1.86 times which is relatively lower than historical average of 2.20 times (since 1989).

PBR_Graph.png

In addition, the current dividend yield of SET of 3.29% is relatively higher than historical average of 3.02% (in another words, the valuation of SET appears reasonable at this point in time).

Div_Yield.png

The reasonable dividend yield of SET is supported by an increasing dividend payout ratio of SET since 2000:

Div_Payout.png

On a separate note, we are seeing a decreasing return on equity, ROE for SET (i.e below 10%). The higher dividend payout trend may have potentially led to lower funds being retained in the companies for business expansion / growth, which in turn will affect future earnings / profitability of the listed companies.

ROE_Graph.png

Furthermore, the market cap-to-GDP for SET appears to be on the higher side at this juncture (signifying potential overvaluation):

Mkt Cap to GDP_Thai.png

Statistical Test 1: P/E vs ROE

PER vs ROE_2.png

PER vs ROE_1.png

PER vs ROE_3.png

In summary – based on the relationship PER vs ROE, it appears that PER of SET of 21.96x is relatively higher than the forecasted PER of 18.64x (signifying potential overvaluation of SET)

Statistical Test 2: P/E vs Dividend Payout

PER vs DivPyt_2.png

PER vs DivPyt_1.png

PER vs DivPyt_3.png

In summary – based on the relationship PER vs Dividend Payout Ratio, it appears that PER of SET of 21.96x is relatively higher than the forecasted PER of 20.64x (signifying potential overvaluation of SET). The statistical relationship based on dividend payout ratio is relatively strong if compared to PER vs ROE.

Statistical Test 3: PBR vs ROE

PBR vs ROE_2.png

PBR vs ROE

PBR vs ROE_3.png

In summary, the statistical relationship of PBR vs ROE appears weak. Based on this statistical relationship, the current PBR of SET of 1.86x is marginally lower than its forecasted value of 1.97x.

Final Words

On a weight of “evidence”, SET appears potentially overvalued. Further, we may see future headwinds affecting the Thailand’s economy:

In the 2016 Thailand Economic Monitor released today by the World Bank, fiscal stimulus and tourism are highlighted as the key drivers of economic growth in Thailand, but the economy still faces headwinds on the path to a broad-based and sustained recovery. The slowdown has exposed structural challenges in implementing public investment, maintaining or raising export competitiveness, and addressing skills mismatches, the report said. The aging of the working-age population will begin to affect the Thai economy within the next five years. Kiatipong Ariyapruchya, senior country economist, noted that due to the issue of ageing, Thailand’s working population would shrink by 11 per cent from now until 2040, from 49 million to 40 million. He noted that major headwinds to the Thai economy would also involve a possible delay in mega projects as well as low export competitiveness. In the first quarter, public spending and tourism were major contributors of Thailand’s ecomic growth.

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/breakingnews/Thailands-economy-expected-to-grow-2-5-in-2016-30289300.html

DISCLAIMER: ALL ARTICLES CONTAINED IN THIS SITE ARE FOR INFORMATION AND ILLUSTRATIVE PURPOSES ONLY AND DOES NOT PURPORT TO SHOW ACTUAL RESULTS. IT IS NOT, AND SHOULD NOT BE REGARDED AS INVESTMENT ADVICE OR AS A RECOMMENDATION REGARDING ANY PARTICULAR SECURITY OR COURSE OF ACTION. SOURCES USED IN THIS SITE HAVE NOT BEEN INDEPENDENTLY VERIFIED FOR ACCURACY. YOU SHOULD SEEK INDEPENDENT AND PROFESSIONAL INVESTMENT ADVICE IN REGARD TO YOUR INVESTMENT DECISIONS. THE AUTHOR MAY HOLD POSITIONS IN THE SECURITIES MENTIONED ABOVE. 

The Single Most Important Thing I Learnt From Jesse Lauriston Livermore

Jesse Lauriston Livermore (July 26, 1877 – November 28, 1940), also known as the Boy Plunger[1] and the Great Bear of Wall Street, was an American stock trader. He was famed for making and losing several multimillion-dollar fortunes and short sellingduring the stock market crashes in 1907 and 1929.

Jesse_Livermore.gif

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jesse_Lauriston_Livermore

The Single Most Important Thing I Learnt From Jesse:

“Disregarding the big swing and trying to jump in and out was fatal to me. Nobody can catch all the fluctuations. In a bull market your game is to buy and hold until you believe that the bull market is near its end. To do this you must study general conditions and not tips or special factors affecting individual stocks.”

“Without faith in his own judgment no man can go very far in this game. That is about all I have learned – to study general conditions, to take a position and stick to it. I can wait without a twinge of impatience. I can see a setback without being shaken, knowing that it is only temporary.”

In property, it is all about Location, Location, Location. In stock market, it is about Conditions, Conditions, Conditions. Stop being emotional, be objective and study the conditions affecting the markets. Example – if there is no positive earnings catalyst, how can a stock continue to climb on its upward trend? If the general economy is not favourable, isn’t it more likely to see a decline in the general indices? If there is a fundamental shift in the industry, shouldn’t you be concerned? Fundamentals matter. 

Book Corner: Investing In Knowledge (Click Image For Reference)

DISCLAIMER: ALL ARTICLES CONTAINED IN THIS SITE ARE FOR INFORMATION AND ILLUSTRATIVE PURPOSES ONLY AND DOES NOT PURPORT TO SHOW ACTUAL RESULTS. IT IS NOT, AND SHOULD NOT BE REGARDED AS INVESTMENT ADVICE OR AS A RECOMMENDATION REGARDING ANY PARTICULAR SECURITY OR COURSE OF ACTION. SOURCES USED IN THIS SITE HAVE NOT BEEN INDEPENDENTLY VERIFIED FOR ACCURACY. YOU SHOULD SEEK INDEPENDENT AND PROFESSIONAL INVESTMENT ADVICE IN REGARD TO YOUR INVESTMENT DECISIONS. THE AUTHOR MAY HOLD POSITIONS IN THE SECURITIES MENTIONED ABOVE. 

What should we expect in August?

As per my first post on this site (https://kenutau.wordpress.com/2016/02/06/august-negative-month-for-fbmklci/) , on a balance of probability, we should anticipate the general indices to record a negative month-to-month return for the month of August.

Key dates to watch out in the month of August for Malaysia:

5 Aug 2016 Release of BNM Statement of Accounts as at 29 Jul 2016
12 Aug 2016 Release of 2nd Quarter 2016 GDP
22 Aug 2016 Release of BNM Statement of Accounts as at 15 Aug 2016
30 Aug 2016 Release of Monthly Statistical Bulletin July 2016
30 Aug 2016 Release of Detailed Disclosure of International Reserves as at end July 2016
Source http://www.bnm.gov.my/index.php?ch=en_event

What We Can Learn From Past Historical Trading Patterns of FBMKLCI (Jul-Aug)

2015: Decline in FBMKLCI commenced on 6 August 2015, with the index having traded below its 20D-MA and 50D-MA. There was a subsequent upward reversal on 25 August 2015. Prior to the decline on 6 Aug 2015, the FBMKLCI has been trending range bound in the month of July, with volume that was relatively lower if compared to the August trading month. Another key observation is that prior to the drop in August, the FBMKLCI was trading below that of its 50D-MA and 200D-MA. The 3 MAs lines were pointing downward for month July prior to the decline in August.

Aug_2015.jpeg

2014: Similar to 2015, the month-to-month decline in FBMKLCI commenced on 6 August 2014.  However, it has a relatively shorter time frame of decline prior to a upward reversal since there was a major decline on 8 August 2014. Prior to the decline, the FBMKLCI has been trending around 20D-MA and 50D-MA, but above its 200D-MA. There is no material difference in terms of volume for both July and August. The 20D and 50D MAs were pointing downward prior to the decline, whilst 200D MA was maintaining an upward trend.

Aug_2014

2013: Similar to 2014, prior to the decline, the FBMKLCI has been trending around its 20D-MA and 50D-MA, but above its 200D-MA. It has two major significant declines, with the first decline commencing end July and another major decline was recorded on 20 August 2013. Rebound or upward reversal happened at a later stage in early September. Volume was significant in 3rd week of August onwards. The 20D and 50D MAs were pointing downward prior to the decline, whilst 200D MA was maintaining an upward trend. 20D MA actually crossed below the 50D MA in July.

Aug_2013.jpeg

2012: Unlike 2015,2014 and 2013, 2012 recorded a positive trend for the month of August. The subsequent decline happened in the month of September. The FBMKLCI has been trending above 20D, 50D and 200D MAs. Three MAs were all pointing upward, with significant support in between the lines.

Aug_2012.jpeg

What about August 2016?

Aug_2016.jpeg

  • It will depend on whether the FBMKLCI is able to continue trading above its 200D MA resistance line. If yes, we may potentially see a continuing upward trend for FBMKLCI with 3 MAs potentially pointing upward (contrast: 2015 / 2014 / 2013).
  • We saw some positive upward movement in FBMKLCI when the 20D MA crosses above 50D MA lately.
  • Potential support line at 1,612
  • Volume has been ‘quiet’ for month of July

 

DISCLAIMER: ALL ARTICLES CONTAINED IN THIS SITE ARE FOR INFORMATION AND ILLUSTRATIVE PURPOSES ONLY AND DOES NOT PURPORT TO SHOW ACTUAL RESULTS. IT IS NOT, AND SHOULD NOT BE REGARDED AS INVESTMENT ADVICE OR AS A RECOMMENDATION REGARDING ANY PARTICULAR SECURITY OR COURSE OF ACTION. SOURCES USED IN THIS SITE HAVE NOT BEEN INDEPENDENTLY VERIFIED FOR ACCURACY. YOU SHOULD SEEK INDEPENDENT AND PROFESSIONAL INVESTMENT ADVICE IN REGARD TO YOUR INVESTMENT DECISIONS. THE AUTHOR MAY HOLD POSITIONS IN THE SECURITIES MENTIONED ABOVE. 

Are We In A Recovery?

CycleInvesting.png

Every business cycle is different in its own way, but certain patterns have tended to repeat themselves over time. Fluctuations in the business cycle are essentially distinct changes in the rate of growth in economic activity, particularly changes in three key cycles—the corporate profit cycle, the credit cycle, and the inventory cycle—as well as changes in the employment backdrop and monetary policy. While unforeseen macroeconomic events or shocks can sometimes disrupt a trend, changes in these key indicators historically have provided a relatively reliable guide to recognizing the different phases of an economic cycle. https://www.fidelity.com/viewpoints/investing-ideas/business-cycle-investing

Where is Malaysia now (from a cycle investing perspective)?

1- Interest Rate Rising

InterestRateHike.png

In July 2014, Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) hiked its overnight policy rate by 25 basis points to 3.25 percent, after keeping it steady since mid-2011. http://www.cnbc.com/2014/07/10/entral-bank-raises-rates-to-help-debt.html

2- Falling Share Price

KLCI Declines.png

3- Falling Commodity Prices

Malaysia depends on two key commodities, crude oil and crude palm oil (CPO) to drive its exports. Crude oil has declined significantly since 2014.

Crude Oil.png

CPO has since recovered after experiencing significant decline from 2014 onwards.

CPO.png

4- Falling Overseas Reserves

We have seen a drop in foreign reserves of BNM:

Forex.png

5- Tighter Money 

Tighter credit lending in the property sectors:

Malaysians are finding it increasingly harder to get housing loans as banks have less money available to lend out, financial expert Gary Chua said today. Chua, who heads financial education firm Smart Financing, said the housing loan approval rate, which was at least 65 per cent about seven years ago, has been showing a downward trend this year with banks rejecting a higher number of applications. He said statistics show that the 53 per cent of loan approvals by banks in the first quarter slid to just 47 per cent for residential property loan approvals in the third quarter.

– See more at: http://www.themalaymailonline.com/money/article/financial-expert-tougher-to-get-housing-loans-as-bank-funds-dry-up#sthash.kT6agKYg.dpuf

6- Falling Real Estate Values

The prices of houses could fall further as developers and the secondary property market grapple with the softening demand and the absence of speculators who had been snapping up properties over the last few years. Prices of residential properties declined 4.7% in the first-quarter (1Q) of 2015 and had fallen around 3% so far this year, said RHB Research Institute Sdn Bhd analyst Loong Kok Wen.“If the economy worsens next year, prices of residential properties as a whole could slump by 3% to 5% in 2016.“Residential properties in Iskandar Malaysia, Johor, could see a double-digit price decline next year while prices in the Klang Valley may drop in the single digit,” the analyst told The Malaysian Reserve yesterday

http://www.themalaysianreserve.com/new/story/secondary-property-market-faces-price-fall

7- Falling Interest Rate

13 July 2016: Bank Negara Malaysia has unexpectedly reduced the Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) by 25 basis points to 3% at its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting on Wednesday, citing rising risks from Britain’s exit from the European Union. It said on Wednesday the ceiling and floor rates of the corridor for the OPR are correspondingly reduced to 3.25% and 2.75% respectively. This move could see banks lowering their lending rates and making it cheaper for eligible consumers and companies to take loans. Correspondingly, the saving rates could also go down. 

http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/07/13/bnm-cuts-opr-to-3pct-at-its-monetary-policy-committee/

What Are The Sectors That Can Be Considered If We Are REALLY In A Recovery

business-cycle-2.jpg

Final Words

Our brief analysis is very much of a domestic focus, without significant consideration for external factors. The uncertainties in the global environment could potentially weigh on Malaysia’s growth prospects and hence, the question of whether we are in recovery or not will ultimately depend on the overall health and prospects of the global economy.

 

DISCLAIMER: ALL ARTICLES CONTAINED IN THIS SITE ARE FOR INFORMATION AND ILLUSTRATIVE PURPOSES ONLY AND DOES NOT PURPORT TO SHOW ACTUAL RESULTS. IT IS NOT, AND SHOULD NOT BE REGARDED AS INVESTMENT ADVICE OR AS A RECOMMENDATION REGARDING ANY PARTICULAR SECURITY OR COURSE OF ACTION. SOURCES USED IN THIS SITE HAVE NOT BEEN INDEPENDENTLY VERIFIED FOR ACCURACY. YOU SHOULD SEEK INDEPENDENT AND PROFESSIONAL INVESTMENT ADVICE IN REGARD TO YOUR INVESTMENT DECISIONS. THE AUTHOR MAY HOLD POSITIONS IN THE SECURITIES MENTIONED ABOVE.