UK’s referendum on 23 June on whether to stay in the UK or leave the EU.

Based on initial survey, the breakdown of voting based on age groups is shown below:

 

Brexit2.png

The above survey clearly show that the higher-age groups are in favour of BREXIT.

Source: http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/apr/02/eu-referendum-young-voters-brexit-leave

Based on the outcome of the survey, a simple analysis was made as follows:

Brexit1.png

Final Prediction – there is 48.1% probability that UK will remain with EU. Too close to call. If BREXIT does materialise – volatility will definitely spike coupled with flock of funds into safe haven assets  such as USD and gold.

 

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